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消息人士：贝森特或动用规模近1万亿美元的财政部一般账户 为债券回购计划提供资金_我的网站

A |     "For decades now, the Pacific Ocean can be fairly described as an American lake, in which the US strategic presence is actively supported by the Australian and to a lesser extent New Zealand economic and security presence," says Joseph Camilleri, emeritus professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne.,However, with the People's Republic of China's (PRC) swift economic rise, it's hardly surprising that Beijing has started to explore new possibilities in the Pacific, according to the academic.,"What has particularly troubled the United States and its principal ally in the South Pacific, Australia, is the fact that China is making inroads into what was until now considered to be an exclusive American sphere of influence," he stresses.,On July 13, Vice President Kamala Harris told the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Suva in a virtual address that US funding for the region would be stepped up to $60 million per year for 10 years. The newly announced endeavor includes more funding for fisheries, extra aid, and offers of new US embassies in the Pacific. In particular, the US is set to ink renewed fishing treaties with Pacific island nations allowing US vessels to fish in their exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and offering greater support for maritime surveillance in the Pacific. In addition to that, the Peace Corps – the United States government's volunteer program – will return to four countries, including Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, and Vanuatu, according to CNN.,Australia Welcomes 'Renewed Commitment' From US Towards Pacific, Willing to Work With China11:38 GMT,"The timing of the pledge has much to do with the strategic competition between the United States and China," Camilleri explains. "In recent years, China has made considerable headway in developing its relations with [the Pacific Island Forum (PIF)] board, including cooperation in political, security and regional affairs, aid and development, COVID response and health, Ocean affairs and climate change, and much else.",The US attempt to assert its presence in the Pacific region also comes on the heels of the Quad IUU Fishing Initiative announced in late May, according to Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.,The leaders of the Quad nations — Australia, India, Japan, and the United States – proposed a maritime surveillance initiative to establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated, and unprotected (IUU) fishing. The Quad endeavor may be viewed as an extension of earlier initiatives against China's fishing activities in the South Pacific, according to the academic.,"The South Pacific region is presently one of the richest and most active fishery areas in the world," he highlights.,Why Asia Won't Reject Russia's Hydrocarbons or China's Rare Earths Despite US PressureYesterday, 18:54 GMT,Even if Half of Pacific Islands Ink China Pact, It'll be Beijing's Win,Two months ago, Beijing offered a draft agreement between China and 10 island nations spanning policing, security, fisheries, data, and a free trade zone. Some Pacific leaders have agreed to consider China's trade and security pact, while the others have voiced concerns that their rapprochement with Beijing could antagonize Washington.,"The Chinese proposal to establish a China-Pacific Islands cooperation framework agreement may not yet have won sufficient support but I expect that the Chinese side will persist with its proposal, and that it may be happy to proceed with it, even if only five or six Island states are prepared to sing such an agreement," says Camilleri.,Prior to that, in mid-April, the Chinese and the Solomon Islands governments formally signed a bilateral security agreement regardless of the displeasure voiced by the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Commenting on the pact on June 3, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscored that its purpose is "to assist the Solomon Islands in maintaining social order." He vehemently denied Western media speculation about China's apparent plans to beef up its military presence in the region.,"China has come to the South Pacific region to build roads and bridges and improve the people’s lives, not to station troops or build military bases," Wang highlighted.,© MANDEL NGANUS President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. US President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. © MANDEL NGAN,US-China Competition for Pacific Islands Region Will Intensify,As the US and China's competition for the resource-rich region unfolds, it all depends on what Washington and Beijing can offer to Pacific island nations, according to Camilleri.,"It is doubtful that the paltry sum of $60 million offered by the United States can even begin to match what China is offering, or that it will greatly impress the Pacific Islands States meeting in Fiji," the professor suggests.,Furthermore, China has made substantial progress in building trade relations with the countries of the region as well as in establishing diplomatic ties with the PIF. The People's Republic was first invited to attend the PIF-related Talk on Establishing Dialogue Partnership held in Suva, Fiji, in 1988. Since 1990, China has attended the Post-Forum Dialogue meetings on a regular basis. In 2003, China announced its willingness to further expand economic ties with PIF member countries as well as to provide funding for the forum's secretariat.,"According to official Chinese figures, from 1992 to 2021, total trade volume between China and Pacific Island Countries (PICs) having diplomatic relations with China grew from $153 million to $5.3 billion, registering an average annual increase of 13% and expanding by over 30 times in 30 years. Similarly, by the end of 2021, China’s direct investment in PICs having diplomatic relations with China had reached $2.72 billion," says Camilleri.,The competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China on the other will, if anything, gather pace and intensity in the years to come, the professor says, adding that Beijing's advantage is that "it comes to the table with a much bigger checkbook, and greater opportunities for trade and investment, especially in infrastructure projects."。    　　据报道，两名美国财政部高级官员透露，美国财政部或将动用规模接近1万亿美元的财政部一般账户（TGA），为债券回购计划提供资金。贝森特已将TGA余额规模扩大至约9500亿美元。　　相关报道　　美国财政部“救市”新消息！近万亿美元现金储备可能出手买美债　　赶在周一晚间美股开盘前，美国财政部展开了新一轮干预债市的努力。

B | 　　据媒体援引“两名美国财政部高级官员”报道称，美国财政部可以动用规模接近1万亿美元的财政部一般账户（TGA），为其近期宣布的扩大美国国债回购计划提供资金。

C | 　　受此影响，长端美债（10年期/30年期）收益率均小幅回落（对应国债价格上涨），美股期指跌幅小幅收窄。现货黄金维持涨势，最新报价在每盎司4650美元上下。（美国30年期国债收益率分钟线图）　　美国财政部一般账户（TGA账户）可以理解为美国联邦政府在美联储开设的“支票账户”，或者说是美国政府的应急现金储备。　　在贝森特治下，目前TGA账户的余额已经达到约9500亿美元，明显高于拜登政府时期的5500亿至6000亿美元目标水平。　　美国财政部尚未透露是否、何时以及动用多少TGA资金，但这些官员明确表示，这笔钱可以用于此次长期美债回购。　　作为背景，美国财政部上周三出人意料地宣布，将9月开始的长期美债单次回购规模从20亿美元提高一倍至“至少40亿美元”。这一消息一度推动美债收益率下行，但效果仅维持了短短一天。

D | 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四又公开表示，实际回购规模甚至可能高于目前公告的水平。　　大多数市场参与者此前认为，财政部会通过发行短期国库券来筹集资金，甚至连贝森特上周接受采访时，也把这项操作称为 “财政部版扭转操作”（Treasury Twist）。这种“发行短债控制长期债券收益率”的做法，也被市场质疑效果有限，且美国财政部的火力可能受限。

E | 　　因此，动用TGA账户将有利于改变市场的看法，同时该账户的“火力”足以应对短期债市波动。　　据报道，上述官员没有透露，美国财政部究竟会不会动用TGA、会动用多少资金，以及相关决定可能会在什么时候公布。他们也没有暗示，TGA资金会被用于购买长期国债之外的其他资产，仅明确表示“TGA账户是可用的”。　　美国财政部动用TGA账户稳定债市的另一个好处，是这个账户里该有多少钱，本身就具有一定的政策裁量空间。　　耶伦担任美国财长期间，财政部官员曾表示，TGA的目标是维持相当于 “未来一周现金支出需求” 的水平。现任财政部则表示，其账户余额的设定“符合财政部长期以来的现金余额管理政策”。

F | 　　短期内让TGA余额适度下降，似乎也不会立即引发风险。　　减少TGA余额，意味着如果未来再次出现债务上限僵局，美国政府手头可动用的现金储备会有所下降。但最新估算显示，美国下一次触及债务上限（41.1万亿美元），至少是中期选举以后的问题了。　　从预期管理的角度来说，即便财政部只是小规模动用TGA，或者市场仅仅意识到财政部愿意使用TGA买入美国国债，也可能对美债收益率产生影响。　　这还可以缓解债券市场上的另一项担忧：部分投资者此前担心，美联储可能会被要求协助财政部实施此类国债回购操作。美联储确实像一家银行一样替财政部保管TGA账户，但美联储并不把TGA视为其货币政策工具的一部分。　　报道称，美国财政部官员还对外界的一项批评进行了反驳：有人认为，财政部此次突然宣布扩大国债回购，偏离了长期以来在债券发行方面坚持的 “规律且可预测”原则，甚至是在有意“操纵市场”。　　此次扩大回购计划的公告，是在季度再融资声明发布两周之后公布的。按照惯例，此类信息通常会在季度再融资声明中一并向市场披露。　　不过，上述财政部高级官员表示，财政部实际上并没有对正式的国债拍卖日程作出任何调整。　　他们还指出，这项公告是在首场回购操作之前将近三周发布的，首次操作定于9月9日进行，因此市场仍有充足时间做好准备。此外，财政部在8月19日的公告中已经一次性公布了整个季度的回购安排。　　这些官员还表示，由于第一场回购要到9月9日才会进行，因此现在就判断这项政策对市场的实际影响还为时过早。

G | 　　贝森特上周曾表示，财政部扩大回购规模的目的，是希望市场能够“把注意力放在基本面上，而不是在市场交投清淡的平静时期根据新闻标题进行交易”。（来源：财联社）（文章来源：第一财经）。

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